Labour support in Wales has fallen to its lowest level since before the 2010 general election, an opinion poll has suggested.
The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales puts Labour’s constituency vote at 33%, down two points in two weeks.
Prof Roger Scully of Cardiff University said the party remained “some way ahead of the field” but would be “concerned”.
He projected Labour winning 28 seats, Plaid Cymru 13, Tories 10, UKIP seven, and the Lib Dems two.
On constituency votes the data, compiled for the Welsh Election Study from 19-22 April, put the parties on the following:
- Labour 33% (down 2 percentage points since 7-11 April)
- Plaid Cymru 21% (no change)
- Conservatives 19% (no change)
- UKIP 15% (down two points)
- Liberal Democrats 8% (up two points)
- Others 3% (no change).
For the regional lists, where 20 of the 60 AMs are elected using a form of proportional representation, the research indicated:
- Labour 29% (down two points)
- Plaid Cymru 22% (up two points)
- Conservatives 19% (down one point)
- UKIP 15% (down one point)
- Liberal Democrats 8% (up three points)
- Greens 4% (no change)
- Others 4% (up one point).
“Labour thus remain some way ahead of the field,” said Prof Scully.
“But they must be somewhat concerned that support has edged downwards further: 33% on the constituency vote is Labour’s lowest level in any Welsh poll since before the 2010 general election.
“A similar YouGov poll conducted in late April 2011 put Labour on 45% for the constituency vote and 41% for the list vote,” he added.
“So Labour are now twelve percentage points lower, on both ballots, than they were at this stage in the electoral cycle before the last assembly election.
“Were Labour’s election performance this year to fall below their poll rating – which it has normally done in Wales in recent years – then Labour could be on course for their worst ever vote share in a National Assembly election.”
However, Prof Scully pointed out that “the divided opposition leaves Labour well in the lead”.
He said Plaid Cymru would be “encouraged that this poll now has them in a clear second place on both ballots”.
The Lib Dems had “moderately good polling news” with an increase in support, he said, but their position was “still highly precarious”.
- The findings were based on a survey of 1,011 people conducted from 19-22 April 2016